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US 2021 farm sector income forecast

‘Receipts expected to drop for vegetables and melons, fruits and nuts’

The US net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to decrease $9.8 billion (8.1 percent) from 2020 to $111.4 billion in 2021. This expected decline follows a forecast increase of $38 billion (45.7 percent) in 2020.

After increasing $27.3 billion (25.0 percent) in 2020, net cash farm income is forecast to decrease $7.9 billion (5.8 percent) to $128.3 billion in 2021. In inflation-adjusted 2021 dollars, net farm income is forecast to decrease $12 billion (9.7 percent) and net cash farm income is forecast to decrease $10.4 billion (7.5 percent). If realized, both income measures would remain above their historical average across 2000-19 even after adjusting for inflation.

Image: USDA

Growth in Crop Receipts Forecast for 2021

Crop cash receipts are forecast at $215.7 billion in 2021, an increase of $11.8 billion (5.8 percent) from 2020 in nominal terms. A $16.1 billion increase in corn and soybean receipts alone more than accounts for the overall net increase, while receipts are expected to fall for vegetables and melons, fruits and nuts, and cotton.

Vegetable and melon cash receipts are expected to fall $1.2 billion (5.7 percent) in 2021, mostly because of lower prices. Cash receipts for fruits and nuts are expected to fall $3.2 billion (9.6 percent) in 2021, as the effects of lower prices should outweigh a positive quantity effect. A decline in sugar beet receipts is also forecast for 2021, totaling $0.3 billion (17 percent).

Source: ers.usda.gov


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