Short-term European tomato outlook

The European production of fresh tomato is expected to decrease by 2% in 2020. This trend is driven by a decline of production in Spain (-7%), which is the largest producing country. 

Spanish producers are switching to the production of more profitable greenhouse vegetables. In contrast, the production in Poland is increasing, thanks to further investments in greenhouse production.

Production in other European countries should overall be stable: decreasing yields due to a further focus on the production of smaller-sized and high value-added tomatoes should be balanced out by the  extension of the duration of the winter production. The European production of tomatoes for processing is expected to increase by 1% this year. This should result in an, overall, stable tomato production. 

Turkey is gaining shares in fresh tomato imports. The COVID-19 measures stopped the food service demand, which affects the demand for round tomatoes in particular, and pushed prices down. At the same time, home consumption, in particular of small-sized tomatoes, increased. On balance, the European consumption of fresh tomatoes is expected to slightly decline in 2020 by 1%. 

European exports of fresh tomatoes were down by almost 20% in January to April, due to COVID-19 measures which caused logistical problems and increased transport costs, but have been dynamic since then. Overall, a decline of 7% is expected for 2020. 

Imports of fresh tomatoes are expected to continue to increase in 2020. Whereas Morocco accounts by far for the largest share of imports (in 2019, 71%), imports from Turkey (17%) were 37% above import numbers in January - April of this year, as opposed to last year. Imports from Morocco rose by only 3%, being more affected by COVID-19 related logistic difficulties. 

Source: European Commission

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