The Norwegian Environment Agency commissioned a report in order to provide basic information for climate change effect studies and climate change adaptation in Svalbard. It includes descriptions of historical, as well as projections for future climate development in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and ocean, and it includes effects on the physical nature, e.g. risks associated with landslides and avalanches.
Under medium to high scenarios for future climate gas emissions, the following changes are projected for Svalbard from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100:
- Increased annual air temperature (ensemble median about 10 ºC for high and 7 ºC for medium emissions)
- Increased annual precipitation (ensemble median about 65% for high and 45% for medium emissions)
- Events with heavy rainfall will be more intense and occur more frequently
- River flow will increase, but the magnitude will strongly depend on the precipitation and temperature increase and contribution of glacier meltwater
- In regions where the maximum annual snow storage will decrease, snowmelt floods will become smaller
- Increased precipitation, and increasing fraction as rain, will lead to increased rain-floods and increased combined snowmelt-, glacier melt- and rain-floods
- The snow season will become shorter
- Erosion and sediment transport will increase
- Near-surface permafrost is projected to thaw in coastal and low altitude areas for the high emission scenario
- Many types of avalanches and landslides will become more frequent
- The glacier area and net mass balance will be severely reduced during the 21st century
- The loss of glacier mass and area will change the landscape and contribute to global sea-level rise
- Because of large land uplift and reduced gravitational pull, the mean sea level around Spitsbergen will probably decrease
A climate projection for the ocean areas (for medium emissions) gives from 2010–2019 to 2060–69:
- An average warming of surface waters around Svalbard of about 1°C
- A substantially decreased sea ice concentration in the northern Barents Sea
This news could turn out to be particularly troublesome for the Global Seed Vault, which is located on Svalbard. The natural "seed freezer" already had some problems due to leaking permafrost in recent years. If the findings in the report come true, there might be more of those occurrences ahead...