Medium-term prospects for EU agricultural markets and income 2016-2026

A new report presents the medium-term outlook for the major EU agricultural commodity markets and agricultural income to 2026, based on a set of coherent macroeconomic assumptions deemed most plausible at the time of the analysis. The projections assume a continuation of current agricultural and trade policies.

These assumptions imply relatively smooth market developments while in reality markets tend to be much more volatile. Therefore, the outlook is not a forecast. More precisely, the projections correspond to the average trend agricultural markets are expected to follow in a given macroeconomic environment were policies to remain unchanged.

This report presents the medium-term outlook for the major EU agricultural commodity markets (arable crops, biofuels, meat, dairy products, olive oil, wine, apples and tomatoes) and agricultural income to 2026. This analysis is based on information available at the end of September 2016 for agricultural production and an agro-economic model used by the European Commission. It is accompanied by an uncertainty analysis quantifying potential variations of the results stemming in particular from fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment and yields of the main crops.

As part of the validation process, an external review of the baseline and the uncertainty scenarios was conducted at an outlook workshop in Brussels on 25-26 October 2016. Valuable input was collected from high-level policy makers, European and international modelling and market experts, private companies and other stakeholders, and international organisations such as the OECD, FAO and the World Bank.

This European Commission publication is a joint effort between the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development and the Joint Research Centre's Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-Seville). Responsibility for the content rests with the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development. While every effort is made to provide a robust agricultural market and income outlook, strong uncertainties remain – hence the importance given to the uncertainty analysis. This publication does not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Commission.

View the report here.

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