For most Dutch horticultural businesses, 2025 was a positive year. Rabobank's Horticulture Barometer rated the sector at 7 out of 10. However, results in the sweet pepper segment pulled the overall average down, according to the bank's sector specialists.
Earlier figures from Wageningen Social & Economic Research had already shown that pepper growers faced a challenging year (link in Dutch).
Following a significant increase in production in 2025, Rabobank expects improved price formation for sweet peppers in 2026 due to a projected decline in output. The Dutch sweet pepper area expanded strongly in 2025. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported an increase from 1,530 hectares in 2024 to 1,660 hectares in 2025.
Based on this 8.5% expansion in acreage and an estimated 3% increase in production per square metre, total Dutch production rose by approximately 12% compared with 2024, reaching an estimated 450–460 million kilograms. Over the season, prices for Dutch peppers declined by around 25%. According to Rabobank specialists, each 1% increase in supply resulted in an average price decrease of approximately 2%.
Decrease in bell pepper area in 2026
Rabobank anticipates a slight reduction in the Dutch sweet pepper area in 2026. While some expansion is expected through new greenhouse construction and the acquisition of former tomato greenhouses by pepper growers, several producers are converting pepper greenhouses to other crops, including strawberries, aubergines and ornamental plants.
On balance, the bank expects the Dutch pepper area to total around 1,600 hectares. This estimate is supported by data from several seed suppliers, according to Rabobank analysts Lambert van Horen and Arne Bac.
Expected lower productions per square meter in 2026
Yields per square metre were high in 2025 due to above-average sunshine hours. As there are few changes in variety selection, Rabobank expects average fruit weights to remain similar. Where new varieties are introduced, these are generally focused on virus resistance, lower cultivation temperatures and/or reduced labour requirements rather than higher yields.
With sunshine hours expected to return to more average levels, production per square metre is forecast to decline slightly.
Rabobank estimates that the Dutch sweet pepper area will decrease by 4% in 2026 compared with 2025. Combined with the expected loss of the 3% yield increase recorded in 2025, total production is projected to fall by around 7%, resulting in an output of 420–430 million kilograms.
Under this scenario, prices may settle between the levels seen in 2024 and 2025. The bank does not factor in higher consumption, as it does not expect demand to increase significantly.
In its Barometer update, Rabobank also reviews developments in other greenhouse and open-field crops.
© RaboResearch 2026Source: Rabobank
