The Dutch agricultural sector is expected to contract in 2026, according to ING. The bank forecasts a production decline of 1 to 2 percent, partly as a result of government buyout schemes aimed at reducing livestock numbers. In floriculture and greenhouse vegetables, prices fluctuated in 2025 and overall results declined.
Income of greenhouse vegetable companies shows a significant decline
Prices for Dutch agricultural and horticultural products typically show considerable annual fluctuations. In 2025, clear differences emerged compared with 2024, largely due to changing production conditions and international market developments.
The greenhouse vegetable sector recorded lower results in 2025, according to preliminary estimates from WUR (link in Dutch). Even so, from a historical perspective, it remained a relatively good year overall, although results varied widely between the three main crops: tomatoes, peppers, and cucumbers.
In tomato production, which accounts for the largest greenhouse vegetable area in the Netherlands, average prices were similar to 2024 levels. Higher production volumes resulted in increased total revenues.
In sweet peppers, area expansion combined with a sunny growing season led to higher production. This put significant pressure on prices, reducing total revenues for pepper growers.
Cucumber growers benefited from higher production volumes and slightly lower prices, which together resulted in increased revenues for the average business.
Outlook for 2026 remains positive. Demand for greenhouse vegetables is stable and the economy is expected to grow moderately. For tomato growers, controlling virus diseases remains a challenge. New resistant varieties are available, but often have limitations, such as lower resistance performance or reduced yields. For pepper growers, price developments will largely depend on whether supply and demand return to better balance.
Energy
Energy continues to be a critical success factor for greenhouse vegetable producers. Companies operating combined heat and power (CHP) installations achieved solid results in 2025, mainly due to active energy management. However, compensation for supplying emergency power and balancing services declined.
Average energy costs increased over the year, primarily because older supply contracts expired and had to be renewed at higher market rates. Other costs, including labor and plant material, also continued to rise.
The trend towards scale enlargement continues. Businesses are expanding both organically and through mergers and acquisitions, and this is expected to persist in 2026.
Greenhouse industry invests in the future
High energy prices in recent years have accelerated investments in energy efficiency and energy transition across the greenhouse sector. LED lighting and additional thermal screens are widely adopted. New CHP installations are also being implemented, allowing growers to respond to changing energy markets and reduce gas consumption. CHP systems also help balance the electricity grid.
Geothermal energy is gaining ground and is expected to contribute significantly to climate targets in the longer term. Under the Convenant Energietransitie Glastuinbouw (Greenhouse Energy Transition Covenant), the sector aims to achieve climate-neutral production by 2040. A key condition is the continued availability of sufficient external CO₂ supplies, which is not yet guaranteed.
Energy markets remain volatile and continue to influence greenhouse results. Growers with CHP systems and, in some cases, battery storage can respond to price fluctuations and improve margins. This creates significant differences in profitability between businesses, a situation expected to continue.
Construction of new greenhouses remains limited. Energy market uncertainty and high building costs are holding back investment. ING does not expect major changes in 2026, meaning that new-build projects will have limited impact on the market.
Floriculture benefits from strong exports despite rising costs
After expanding by 4 percent in 2024, the Dutch floriculture sector recorded stable growth in 2025. Preliminary figures indicate that export value increased by approximately 4 percent again. While cut flowers drove export growth in 2024, plants were the main contributor in 2025. Up to October, plant exports rose by 4.9 percent, compared with 0.9 percent growth for cut flowers.
Despite the slight increase in export value, income in the cut flower sector declined marginally, according to preliminary 2025 figures from Wageningen University & Research (WUR). Income in pot and bedding plants fell more sharply, although it remained above the long-term average. Revenues increased only modestly, while costs rose significantly.
Higher expenses were mainly driven by energy, labor, and plant material. As these costs increased faster than revenues, sector income for 2025 came under pressure.
For 2026, ING expects no major changes in floriculture. Price development is likely to be supported by improving purchasing power in Europe and rising wages. Combined with stable to lower energy prices and a moderately positive economic outlook, prospects for the sector remain relatively favorable.
Source: ING
