A U.S.–India trade agreement was publicly announced on February 2–3, 2026, by U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, signaling a potential reset in bilateral trade relations. While precise legal texts are still under negotiation, initial reports indicate significant tariff reductions on Indian exports to the U.S., with direct implications for the greenhouse industry, particularly substrate suppliers and growers.
Under the reported framework, U.S. tariffs on many Indian goods are expected to fall from previous high levels (sometimes combining to around 50 percent) to approximately 18 percent. This reduction covers a range of products, including horticultural substrates such as coco coir, a staple in commercial greenhouse operations.
"This change is beneficial for American growers, who've been limited in their substrate supplies due to the 50% tariff, and now it's back to 18%. We've ensured to keep our price in check, but we're happy to be back. It's a really good time for the industry to switch or switch back to coco," says Richard Mills of Remmy Coir.
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The Remmy Substrates team at Fruit Logistica, Berlin
In parallel, India is anticipated to expand its purchases of U.S. goods across multiple sectors, including petroleum, defense equipment, aircraft, and telecommunications. While some reports cite multi-hundred-billion-dollar figures, the exact scope and timelines remain subject to formal confirmation. The announcement also included claims that India may reduce or stop buying Russian oil, though this commitment has not been codified in any legal text and remains uncertain.
Despite the public announcement, several details remain unsettled. International trade analysts caution that only a political framework currently exists; the full legal agreement, including sector-specific commitments and enforcement mechanisms, has yet to be released. Sensitive domestic sectors in India, such as agriculture and dairy, are reportedly exempt from major concessions, and the timeline for full tariff implementation could extend over months, depending on negotiations and ratification.
Initial market responses in India have been positive, with currency and stock index gains reported. Economists, including those at Goldman Sachs, forecast moderate boosts to India's GDP growth and export prospects due to tariff relief. In the U.S., industry associations and export groups have welcomed the potential easing of costs for importing Indian products, particularly for high-demand horticultural substrates.
The broader context for the agreement includes nearly a year of heightened trade tension between the U.S. and India, partly linked to energy imports and geopolitical considerations. Both countries have emphasized the strategic priority of expanding bilateral trade, with long-term goals of doubling trade volume by 2030. The current deal, while incomplete in legal form, reflects ongoing efforts to balance market access, tariff relief, and protection for sensitive sectors.
