The United States is preparing to reimpose a 20.91% tariff on fresh tomatoes imported from Mexico as a longstanding trade agreement concludes. With 93% of U.S. tomato imports sourced from Mexico, the shift in policy is expected to impact growers and supply chains across the border.
The 1996 Suspension Agreement on Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico, scheduled to lapse on July 14, had previously circumvented formal anti-dumping duties and maintained a steady flow of tomato imports at stabilized prices. The expiration of this agreement introduces uncertainty regarding production schedules, distribution frameworks, and market availability both domestically and internationally.
The trade policy shift stems from longstanding allegations by U.S. growers against their Mexican counterparts of undercutting prices. "The deal avoided formal tariffs in exchange for strict oversight on pricing, labeling, and quality control," noted the U.S. Department of Commerce. The agreement was last renegotiated in 2019 due to domestic pressure from agricultural groups led by the Florida Tomato Exchange, which contended that the agreement failed to address competitive imbalances.
While advocates for tariff reinstatement argue it promotes fair competition and supports domestic agriculture jobs, there is apprehension among industry players. The Fresh Produce Association of the Americas has cautioned that consumer tomato prices might surge by up to 50%, although this projection remains speculative.
The import tariffs pertain predominantly to Mexican tomato shipments, particularly critical during the U.S. winter months. Consequences extend to employment trends in key Mexican farming zones like Sinaloa, with potential reductions in labor demand affecting farm workers, packaging operators, and export logistics personnel. The U.S. market may also experience adjustments in supply sourcing, impacting restaurants and grocery retailers.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's 2025 forecast, Mexican growers are already curtailing planting for the fall-winter cycle, a typical peak export period, compensating for reduced U.S. harvests in colder months. Domestically, while states like Florida and California lead in production, they do not completely fulfill national consumption demands. This gap could necessitate increased reliance on alternative produce or imports from other regions, though neither offers a complete substitute for the expected shortfall in tomato volumes.
Source: Econostrum
