Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2022

Fresh fruit and vegetables forecast $200 million higher in FY 2022

FY 2023 forecast for horticultural products is a record $39.5 billion, up $400 million from FY 2022. Fresh fruit and vegetables are forecast to $200 million higher to $7.1 billion, and processed fruit and vegetables are forecast to $100 million higher to $7.3 billion on rising exports to Canada and Mexico. Whole and processed tree nuts are forecast to be $300 million lower to $9.5 billion on slightly weaker shipments to Europe and Asia. “Other horticultural products” are forecast up $400 million to $15.6 billion on higher miscellaneous products (e.g., other food preparations, beer, and mixed seasonings) to Canada, Mexico, and Europe.

Fresh fruit imports
In FY 2023, values of fresh fruit imports are expected to grow by $200 million over FY 2022, values to $18.3 billion. Fresh fruit forecast volumes are adjusted upward from the previous forecast, which—coupled with increasing unit values—are expected to increase over FY 2022 import values to $18.1 billion. Although fresh fruit imports for commodities such as bananas, avocados, and blueberries continue their upward trend, reduced U.S. production of citrus due to poor weather conditions also contributed to increased reliance on fruit imports in FY 2022.

Import values of nuts are expected to decrease by $700 million in FY 2022 to $3.1 billion. As the inflationary pressures of the moment begin to ease, unit values are expected to regulate, resulting in a $2.8-billion decrease in FY 2023.

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Source: ers.usda.gov

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