Agro Confidence Index first quarter 2018:
Growers more negative about next 12 months
Index historically still relatively high
Since the end of 2014, the voting index has steadily gone up. It now seems to be stabilizing since the second quarter of 2017. The mood index, which reflects the current situation at a company, decreased slightly. Results for the first quarter of 2018 indicate that the index fell by 1 point. Entrepreneurs with a positive outlook are still in the majority, however. The index therefore remains positive and, historically speaking, it is still relatively high with over 27 points.
Past 12 months mostly negative
The business index, which allows entrepreneurs to look back for 12 months, fell 4 points and is negative (-10 points). More entrepreneurs felt negative over the last 12 months than positive. In particular, selling prices were deemed worse than last quarter. Production, also in the first quarter of 2018, contributed positively to the business situation of the past 12 months but declined and is still just above zero with 4 points.
Future outlook unchanged
The confidence that entrepreneurs have in their business situation in the medium term (future outlook) has hardly changed compared to the fourth quarter of 2017. After four instances where the index fluctuated around 20 points, the index fell by just under 7 points in the second quarter of 2017. The index has now dropped further and is at its lowest level since the third quarter of 2013 with 10 points.
Increasingly pessimistic outlook
More glasshouse horticulturists feel increasingly negative about the next 12 months, and they now outnumber the ones with a positive outlook for the coming 12 months. Both the average price and production levels, according to most entrepreneurs, are having a negative impact on business. In the fourth quarter of 2017, these indexes remained above zero, but after the first quarter of 2018 they decreased by 17 and 6 points, respectively. Both ended up below 0 as a result. It's also expected that costs will increase more this time. This also reduced the revenue and profit indexes, bringing the total index below zero for the first time since the first quarter of 2013.
The overall Agro Trust index for the first quarter of 2018 also declined slightly for the fourth time in a row. With an index of 26 points, nursery gardeners currently have the highest confidence in their business, and poultry farmers the lowest (-13). A positive note is the increase in confidence among dairy farmers (5 points).
Source: Agrimatie