Mexico's 2025 tomato production is forecast at 3.1 million metric tons (MMT), a 3% decrease from 2024 due to persistent drought conditions, especially in Sinaloa, the country's top-producing state. Reduced planting during the autumn–winter cycle, driven by economic uncertainty and expected U.S. trade barriers, further contributes to the decline.
On April 14, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced plans to terminate the 2019 Tomato Suspension Agreement, with a 20.91% anti-dumping duty (ADD) on most Mexican tomato imports set to take effect on July 14, 2025. This change is expected to reduce investment and planting among export-oriented producers.
Despite these challenges, protected agriculture methods—like greenhouses and shade houses—continue to support high yields. Around 70% of Mexico's tomatoes are now grown under protection, producing average yields of 66 pounds per square meter. Modern practices such as drip irrigation, fertigation, and grafting have further boosted efficiency.
The five leading states—Sinaloa, San Luis Potosí, Michoacán, Baja California Sur, and Morelos—account for over half of national production. Sinaloa alone contributes 19% and dominates winter production, especially for U.S. exports. Mexico produces tomatoes year-round, adjusting planting cycles by region. Specialty varieties like grape, heirloom, and multicolored cherry tomatoes, grown primarily in protected environments, are expanding due to strong demand in premium export markets. Tomatoes for processing are also widely cultivated, valued for their high solids and robust flavor.
Severe drought persists in Sinaloa, with much of the region facing extreme to exceptional drought conditions. These water shortages are expected to limit irrigation and discourage new planting. Per capita consumption in Mexico remains steady at 12.7 kilograms (28 pounds) annually. Tomatoes are a staple of the Mexican diet, featured in sauces, stews, and a wide range of everyday dishes.
Tomatoes remain one of Mexico's top five agricultural exports. For 2025, total exports are forecast at 1.96 MMT, down 5% from 2024, with a projected value of USD 3.2 billion. Exports to the U.S. are expected to fall to 1.83 MMT (USD 2.98 billion) as producers adjust to the new tariffs. Exporters are likely to seek alternate markets offering low or zero tariffs to mitigate losses. In 2024, Mexico exported 2.06 MMT of tomatoes, valued at USD 3.34 billion. With mounting climate and trade pressures, the outlook for 2025 reflects a challenging environment for Mexican tomato growers and exporters.
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