The Multisectoral Commission in charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (Enfen) confirmed that there is a coastal El Niño Phenomenon taking place in the Peruvian Sea, especially in the northern and central areas of the country, and that it will bring higher temperatures.
It will be a moderate El Niño, and it will last until spring, at the beginning of October, a member of Enfen stated.
Rainfall in the May-July quarter of 2023 will be slightly higher than it normally is in these months of the year on the country's coast and mountainous areas. In the remainder of May, heavy rainfall on the north coast will decrease, and extreme air temperatures will keep their values above normal along the coast, Enfen stated.
Enfen specialist Rina Gabriel Velarde said that, "According to the information we have, the sea continues warming up, but its impact is now different from the impact it had in March and early April when there were heavy rains. The sea temperature will remain warm in the coming months, but it won't generate a negative impact," she said. According to Gabriel Valdivia, the autumn and winter seasons will be warmer than normal due to the climatic event. "Winter won't be so cold, we expect higher temperatures," he said.
According to estimates, there is a 68% probability that the El Niño phenomenon takes place in the Central Pacific (Niño 3.4 region) in the summer of 2024, and it will most likely be a weak (34%) or moderate (28%) phenomenon. The probability in the Eastern Pacific (region 1+2) stands at 66%, and it will most likely have a weak magnitude (34%); in this scenario, there will most likely be moderate to heavy rainfall on the coast and northern mountain range, as well as air temperatures above their normal values on the coast.
According to Rina Gabriel, El Niño's global scope would begin its development in June, and it will take place in the equatorial Pacific, away from the Peruvian coast, causing sea temperature to rise by one degree.
"It will be a distant event, and it'll have no impact on the Peruvian coast unless it emits Kelvin waves (heat waves) that reach the coast," he said.
According to current reports, the Enfen specialist stated we expect it will be a weak El Niño, and it won't have a great impact in Peru. "It would be similar to the equatorial El Niño in 2016, which didn't impact our country because there were no Kelvin waves present," he concluded.
Sources: senamhi.gob.pe / agraria.pe